MORE COST DATA
- Detailed breakdown of the "economic" costs included in my estimates
- Daily flows of mortality and other costs
- Mortality from Johns Hopkins (json file)
- High-frequency employment
- Latest Employment Situation, monthly from BLS
- Latest Claims for unemployment insurance, weekly from DOL
- Bick and Blandin biweekly household survey patterned after the monthly CPS
- Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Weber results from a Nielsen survey
- My blog post synthesizes these data sources
- BEA advance release of Q1 GDP
- At annualized rates, their advance estimate is -7% for real private purchases and -5% for aggregate real purchases (real GDP)
- My estimate is -8% for real purchases, both public and private.
- BEA and I disagree significantly on government purchases (we agree on government transfers, which are the vast majority of the Federal relief efforts and are not part of GDP).
- Because the "shutdown" occurred near the end of the quarter, my Q1 estimate (and BEA's) is particularly sensitive to the allocation of costs across days.
- Aggregate work hours, daily
- Daily GDP
Image distributed under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.
Image distributed under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.
Image distributed under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.
Image distributed under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license.